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FACT SHEET: India’s Foreign Trade in December 2017

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I. MERCHANDISE TRADE

EXPORTS (including re-exports)

Exports during December 2017 have exhibited positive growth of 12.36 percent in dollar terms vis-à-vis December 2016. Exports have been on a positive trajectory since August 2016 to December 2017 with a dip of 1.1 percent in the month of October 2017.

Exports during December 2017 valued at US $ 27030.27 million as compared to US $ 24056.48 million during December 2016. In Rupee terms, exports were valued at Rs. 173648.73 crores as compared to Rs. 163344.45 crore during December 2016, registering a rise of 6.31 percent.

During December 2017, Major commodity groups of export showing positive growth over the corresponding month of last year are Engineering Goods (25.32%), Petroleum Products (25.15%), Gems & Jewellery (2.38%), Organic & Inorganic Chemicals (31.36%), and Drugs & Pharmaceuticals (6.95%).

Cumulative value of exports for the period April-December 2017-18 was US $ 223512.58 million (Rs 1441419.91 crore) as against US $ 199467.14 million (Rs 1338341.51 crore) registering a positive growth of 12.05 percent in Dollar terms and 7.70 percent in Rupee terms over the same period last year.

Non-petroleum and Non-Gems & Jewellery exports in December 2017 were valued at US $ 20186.36 million as against US $ 18013.78 million in December 2016, an increase of 12.06%. Non-petroleum and Non Gems and Jewellery exports during April -December 2017-18 were valued at US $ 163714.94 million as compared to US $ 144674.52 million for the corresponding period in 2016-17, an increase of 13.16%.

IMPORTS

Imports during December 2017 were valued at US $ 41910.46 million (Rs 269242.54 crore) which was 21.12 percent higher in Dollar terms and 14.59 percent higher in Rupee terms over the level of imports valued at US $ 34602.47 million (Rs. 234952.15 crores) in December 2016. Cumulative value of imports for the period April-December 2017-18 was US $ 338369.63 million (Rs. 2182289.84 crore) as against US $ 277899.32 million (Rs. 1865151.87 crores) registering a positive growth of 21.76 percent in Dollar terms and 17.00 percent in Rupee terms over the same period last year.

Major commodity groups of import showing high growth in December 2017 over the corresponding month of last year are Petroleum, Crude & products (34.94%), Electronic goods (19.2%), Pearls, precious & Semi-precious stones (93.98%), Gold (71.52%), and Machinery, electrical & non-electrical (11.21%).

CRUDE OIL AND NON-OIL IMPORTS:

Oil imports during December 2017 were valued at US $ 10345.88 million which was 34.94 percent higher than oil imports valued at US $ 7667.01 million in December 2016. Oil imports during April-December, 2017-18 were valued at US $ 76148.85 million which was 24.18 percent higher than the oil imports of US $ 61319.72 million in the corresponding period last year.

In this connection, it is mentioned that the global Brent prices ($/bbl) have increased by 18.75 % in December 2017 vis-à-vis December 2016 as per World Bank commodity price data (The pink sheet).

Non-oil imports during December, 2017 were estimated at US $ 31564.58 million which was 17.19 per cent higher than non-oil imports of US $ 26935.46 million in December, 2016. Non-oil imports during April-December 2017-18 were valued at US $ 262220.78 million which was 21.07 per cent higher than the level of such imports valued at US $ 216579.60 million in April-December, 2016-17.

II. TRADE IN SERVICES (for November 2017, as per the RBI Press Release dated 15th January 2018)

EXPORTS (Receipts)

Exports during November 2017 were valued at US $ 15,392 million (Rs. 99836.51 Crore) registering a positive growth of 8.76 per cent in dollar terms as compared to positive growth of 3.06 per cent during October 2017 (as per RBI’s Press Release for the respective months).

IMPORTS (Payments)

Imports during November 2017 were valued at US $ 9,647 million (Rs. 62572.95 Crore) registering a positive growth of 10.89 per cent in dollar terms as compared to positive growth of 2.96 per cent during October 2017 (as per RBI’s Press Release for the respective months).

III.TRADE BALANCE

MERCHANDISE: The trade deficit for December 2017 was estimated at US $ 14880.19 million as against the deficit of US $ 10545.99 million during December 2016.

SERVICES: As per RBI’s Press Release dated 15th January 2018, the trade balance in Services (i.e. net export of Services) for November, 2017 was estimated at US $ 5,745 million.

OVERALL TRADE BALANCE: Taking merchandise and services together, overall trade deficit for April-December 2017-18 is estimated at US $ 70063.05 million as compared to US $ 35626.18 million during April-December 2016-17. (Services data pertains to April-November 2017-18 as November 2017 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15th January 2018)

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Online Retail in India to Multiply by 2.5 Times in the Next Three Years

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The booming e-retail market is likely to surge over twofold over the next three years, as players will be forced to shift their focus from discounts to consolidation, geographical diversification, business realignment and enhancing customer stickiness, says a new report.

According to Crisil, going by the 2016-17 data, the e-retail market represents about 1.5% (Rs 70,000 crore) of the overall Rs 49 trillion retail sector in the country, indicating enormous growth potential.  The online shopping segment has trebled over the past three fiscal years on rising Internet penetration, awareness of online shopping as well as lucrative deals and discounts.

“E-retail market size is expected to surge 250% in the next three years,” the report said without quantifying the industry size by that time.  “After the initial phase where e-retailers focused only on gaining market share through discounts, the next phase will be characterised by consolidation, geographical diversification, business realignment, as well as enhancing customer stickiness,” it added.

Interestingly, the report noted that “a frenzied search for unicorns in the past couple of years ended badly for many investors, who saw their equity wiped out”  and resulted in about 26 prominent start-ups shutting shops in the past two years.

Crisil’s analysis of 11 major e-retail firms showed that almost 45% of the over Rs 40,000 crore invested between FY14 and FY16 was wiped off due to losses at e-retailers.

“Chastened investors are now putting money into just a handful of players that are showing sustainability and enjoy a major market share,” the report said.  “While overall funding increased by over Rs 25,000 crore in the first nine months of the current fiscal year over the previous year, the number of players funded came down 30%, underscoring the caution and sharper focus after the losses,” it added.

Crisil study on 30 companies found that funding for the top three players has increased from 40-45% of overall investments in FY14 to 76-81% in the first nine months of the current fiscal.

“The trend indicates cautious and focused investing by investors with an eye on profitability,” the report said.  “The industry is now 8-10 years old and is moving from the startup phase to more consolidated phase. Going forward, funding will only get more concentrated with big-ticket players getting the bulk of the pie. Niche players will get funding, but in bits and pieces,” it added.

Crisil also found that the e-grocery, which has lately seen an uptick in the number of players and investor interest, is likely to be the next big online segment following apparel, mobile phones.

Online grocery is to be the fastest growing segment with an average growth rate at 65-70% between fiscals 2017 and 2020, while the revenues may quadruple over the next three years to Rs 100 billion.

The growth in the segment would be driven by investments in technology, new strategies adopted by players such as introducing private labels, same day and next day delivery as well as B2B food services.  “In the overall food retail industry, the penetration of online food and grocery stands at a minuscule 0.1%, indicating significant growth potential,” the report said.

Investments in the high-volume, low-margin segment rose over seven times in the first nine months of FY18 to Rs 20 billion, as niche players like BigBasket and Grofers were forced to fight with biggies like Amazon and Flipkart, apart from brick-n-mortar players like D-Mart, and Reliance Retail sharpening focus.

Meanwhile, noting that online customer base remains largely concentrated in major cities, the report said faster growth will slow down in these regions as it is already highly penetrated and players would need to move into small towns to sustain growth.

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REFORM: Govt Approves Private Participation in Commercial Coal Mining

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In one of the biggest reforms in the mining sector, the government has approved private and international participation in commercial coal mining. The move is likely to augment availability of coal and act as a major catalyst for the industry.

The government has initiated one of the biggest reforms in the mining sector. Union Cabinet on Tuesday approved private and international participation in commercial coal mining. The move is likely to augment availability of coal and act as a major catalyst for the industry. The decision was taken at the Cabinet meeting under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Union Cabinet also approved 130 km long Jeypore-Malkangiri New Line project at a cost of Rs. 2676.11 crores. It will help in combating the left wing extremism through development in the districts of Malkangiri and Koraput. It will also improve connectivity to important towns, including Koraput, Jeypore, Jagdalpur, Dantewara and will result in short lead to many places in Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh.

Union Cabinet also approved Bill to ban illicit deposit-taking activities; Bill provides for severe punishment and heavy fines for those raising illegal deposits.

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Three More PNB Officials Arrested

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The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) seeking deportation of Punjab National Bank fraud accused Nirav Modi, on Friday.

A three-judge bench comprising Chief Justice of India, Dipak Misra, Justices AM Khanwilkar and DY Chandrachud today said, the bench will hear the matter on Friday.

The PIL sought Nirav Modi’s deportation within two months for his alleged involvement in the syphoning off Punjab National Bank money to the tunes of 11,400-crore rupees.

It sought immediate and strict action against those PNB and Reserve Bank of India officials involved in the fraud case. The PIL also sought new guidelines for the big loans.

Three officials of Punjab National Bank’s Brady House branch in Mumbai were arrested on Monday in connection with the 11,400 crore rupees fraud by diamond merchant Nirav Modi.

Meanwhile, ED raids continued for the fifth straight day at 35 locations on Monday.

The agency has so far seized diamonds, gold jewellery and other precious stones worth Rs 5,716 crore in the case and summoned Modi and Choksi, the promoter of Gitanjali Gems, to appear before it on February 23 at its Mumbai zonal office.



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